Trump will win in 2024 and it will be less the result of a brilliant GOP strategy — although that will play it part.
It will be a result of apathy and miscalculation on the Left — an attitude that Trump can NOT win in 2024 — just as they felt he could not win in 2016.
I see the attitude over and over. While Democrats have made progress when it comes to state-wide elections, they seem to have missed the inherent imbalance of the electoral college and how that necessarily changes the calculus.
In fact, much of the overconfidence seems to stem from the fact that Biden won the popular vote by nearly 7 million votes. But the popular vote does not determine Presidential winners, the electoral college does and those results paint a very different picture.
So we came perilously close (44,000 votes in three key states) to Biden losing the electoral vote despite winning the popular vote by nearly 7 million.
The Left needs to come to terms with the fact that 2020 was actually won by the sliverest of slivers even compared to Trump’s 2016 victory.
He (TRUMP) won the 2016 election thanks to just under 80,000 combined votes in three of those six key states.
So Biden’s margin of victory in key states was nearly 50% less than Trump’s in 2016.
Add in voter apathy (and the feeling on the part of some voters that it does not matter — Trump can’t win) and add in voter suppression efforts in those key states and things can turn quickly — very quickly.
Trump now has complete control over the party and the power structure — something he did not have in 2016. He has a way to test for loyalty now (belief in the big lie) which he did not have in 2016.
The Left has issues like abortion which may help drive turn out but they need to understand that this election dance is happening on a razor's edge and that Trump is not the damaged or weak candidate they think he is.
And if the Left does not get it together and take the situation seriously, it is entirely likely that they would have lost to a person who was openly racist and sexist in 2016 and then they could lose to a person convicted of felonies and facing further indictments. As a country, we could be faced with having a President serving time while acting as President.
Update: July 19, 2023 Michael Steele explaining why 2024 will be close and reminding people that Biden’s actual margin of victory was not 7 million votes but much, much smaller.