Coronavirus: Obviously there has been a major malfunction.
We are screwing this up badly and the consequences will be huge and for all to see.
Just like the Challenger, the arrogance of politicians and supremacy of agenda’s overrode the judgment of scientists and experts who tried to warn them. And, although they hoped to fool people, nature would not be fooled and had the last say.
They could have proceeded with more caution. They could have delayed the launch slightly to perform some additional systems checks to determine if anything had been damaged by the record cold temperatures the night before. But politicians and agendas could not wait. They steamrolled the experts, thinking that they could also steamroll nature. Their arrogance and impatience led them to forget that experts are simply explaining nature based on science. Science does not have an agenda and does not care about politics. They were gambling recklessly with others' lives to meet their personal needs at that moment — not remembering that the actions of nature to not conform to the personal wishes or timelines of others.
So as here we sit here, decades later, we have a similar problem. Facing an invisible virus that is highly transmittable and which causes significant levels of illness and death, political agendas are rising to the surface and pushing for actions that contradict the recommendations of scientists and experts. Once again, they think that they can get what they want, even when nature is telling us something different.
The consequences this time may be just as spectacular and the tragedy may touch many people as many people felt the loss of the astronauts personally. Unlike the Challenger though, these people are gambling with millions of lives but also the economy of the US which would have global ramifications.
Politicians and those with agendas are trying to frame the question of loosening up restrictions as to “whether we stay “shut down” for 18 months or longer or whether we open up now”.
This is incorrect and sets up a strawman. The real question is whether we open up the right way or the wrong way.
And, now, we are doing it the wrong way. Not only have we not had 14 consecutive days of declining new cases, we still do not have enough test kits consistently throughout the country, and, even worse, testing for healthcare workers is often delayed due to supply.
This is even a bigger issue because PPE for hospitals and healthcare workers is still be rationed. The supply may have improved but there is still not enough to go back to pre-pandemic guidelines or anything close. (This makes the lack of testing even riskier.)
Even the states doing the best, don’t have a solid tracing system in place although this may not be a huge problem if people are not getting tested and new infections are not caught quickly enough. If they are showing up at the doctor with symptoms, things are pretty far down the tracks.
These things make it pretty clear that “hoping for the best despite what science tells us” is our strategy because we have definitely not made significant progress in areas needed and have not even pushed to do some things that could be done to reduce the risk to Americans to more safely loosen things up so we can recover in a way that is sustainable.
And what are those things? What should we do? If we are not going to wait for the 14-day decline in new cases, then we need to do at least the following:
- Daily testing of healthcare workers (hospital, nursing homes, rehab places, etc). This will give them more confidence as well as others.
- Regular, at least weekly, testing of ALL public-facing employees everywhere. No exceptions. Grocery stores. Banks. Every place. This just needs to be part of doing business. (The frequency should be determined by experts and it should not be based on or influenced by kit scarcity.)
- All test results must come back the same day or within hours. If it takes longer than that, the results should be considered invalid.
- We can NOT rely on taking temperatures to be the main signal. Some people never get a fever and by then they may have spread it around. Taking temperatures maybe a backup and good to do with the understanding that it is just another filter — less precise but easier to do.
If we can not do this at a minimum, we are not ready to go. Not even close.
5. Even with all that, a tracing system needs to set up. This should be easier to do with tests being done regularly.
6. Masks and distancing are still needed by everyone. They are a one-two combo. Either on their own is not super effective. Together they make a bigger difference. In this case 1 + 2 = 4.
7. There needs to be more than enough PPE for all healthcare workers without using rationing and reusing. It makes no sense to open up non-essential healthcare places when essential ones, like those treating covid patients, are still at risk because they don’t have enough protection.
8. Workplaces need to provide adequate protection for employees and employees should not be required to provide it themselves. (This means we have to have the production to make it.) If there has been a major outbreak (think meatpackers but there will be others), the places need to be cleaned and EVERY EMPLOYEE should be tested daily for the first two weeks they are back at work. (To account for the 14 day incubation period with testing regularly after that.)
9. There need to be programs and job protections for at-risk people. We know who they are. Pushing them to get back to work if they have a public-facing job is careless. ALSO, there needs to be a provision for people who live with and take care of a person who is at risk. Perhaps they too should be tested daily (for free). There is always a caveat that at-risk people should do something else but no provisions or support as far as how to do it or what those things might be.
10. There needs to be a discussion between epidemiologists and businesses with offices where employees can work from home so that they can work out possible rotation plans to mitigate possible risks based on what we know. Again, we can do this smarter, and people can spend the same number of days in the office. Some combinations will increase risk while others will reduce it.
This is a starting point if we are not going to wait for the 14-day decline before we loosen the restrictions.
And not doing these things and “hoping for the best” really isn’t a strategy. Just like pushing for the Challenger launch knowing that there were risks. There will ALWAYS be risks. It is a matter of mitigating the risks reasonably.
It is important to note that this does not mean that we are waiting for a vaccine. As more effective treatments are discovered, the risk also drops. We need to be focused on treatments as much as vaccines.
Politicians with agendas may want something really bad without doing the needed work to get there. They wanted a safe Challenger launch without doing the necessary checks. They can try to put the cart before the horse but the horse is not going to be able to move the cart until things are ordered correctly. Nature determines the correct order. Not them.
And, as things are now, more people are going to die unnecessarily because of this carelessness, and here is the deal: our missteps could result in even larger economic problems than if we did it right. If people don’t move because they don’t feel safe and comfortable and if they feel things are out of control, the economy will not get better. If there is a significant rise in infections and deaths (or even if there isn’t and things are not getting better), people are going to lose confidence and pull back more.
This will have much larger and longer-term consequences. If we can not get our act together and pose a threat (source of infection) for other countries who are getting back on track, we may be isolated globally and that could lead to a devaluation of the dollar. It would be devastating to both the US and the global economy. This skips over other things that could happen but it is the nuclear situation (worst case) and we should not be so naive or arrogant to assume the supremacy of the dollar and its value. The way in which we have handled this would make it hard for allies to justify supporting the dollar if we fall far behind the rest of the world in recovering. Making matters worse, Trump has not cooperated with global efforts to deal with this and has largely isolated us already.
Politicians may push agendas but, as Richard McKenzie said:
“You can’t fool Mother Nature and you can’t fool market forces (at least not for long)”.
