Coronavirus: Houston (and the world) we have a problem.
Everyone remembers Ebola and SARS.
Ebola was scary but scientists were well aware of how it was transmitted and spread. The symptoms were well known. Obama used this knowledge to guide his measured approach despite the hysteria created in the media. The Ebola scare of 2014–2015 eventually affected 29,000 and killed 11,000.
Earlier we had SARS which also started in China in November 2002 and continued until July 2003. The concern was so great about its spread that FIFA quickly relocated Woman’s World Cup, which was scheduled to be played in China, to the United States.
SARS eventually spread to 8000 people and killed 800 total. That is the total. In nine months.
I emphasize this because the warning bells are not going off with the coronavirus and there has been relatively little coverage. Nothing along the lines of what we saw in other cases and yet the number of people infected by it has probably exceeded the total infected with SARS. We are already up to 4515 reported and, with the lag in reporting and the incubation time, the total number infected easily would exceed 8000. Making matters worse, as you read this, people are walking around spreading it because they don’t know they have it.
While information is still being processed and the fatality rate may not be as high as Ebola or SARS, the transmission rate is another thing (and still being worked out) but it is estimated that one person will pass it on to 1.5 to 3.5 people. If it is at the higher end of the scale, we are likely in for big trouble. Even with a much lower fatality rate, if the virus infections millions, the number of fatalities will be large.
And so far, the US response has been ridiculous.
Trump has tweeted on January 24th:
On January 27th:
On January 28th, he retweeted this:
At the same time, the Trump administration has made arrangements to get Americans out of the containment zone without clarity as to how they are going to be repatriated to insure they will not spread this virus more. There has been talk about checking those returning before they are allowed back into the country but people are asymptomatic and contagious at the same time. We know this already. There are hints that they may be quarantined but nothing supported by fact. The quarantining of incoming people through the incubation period should be one of the, if not the, most critical part of the plan.
The biggest problem is that people in the United States seem to have been lulled by past successes at containing outbreaks in the past. The risk of Ebola was over hyped in the media. SARS was relatively contained before it got too far out of hand. People are commenting like “Been there. Done that.” when this already is outside the bounds of what we have seen in the recent past.
We have hit SARS levels of infection in about a month with no sign that it is being contained or slowing down. Indeed the opposite is happening and cases are reported in more and more countries. These things spread exponentially so we are likely in for numbers larger than I would like to contemplate.
Have we hit a point where the past successes will result in our greatest failure?
Time will tell.
Written: January 28, 2020
