Biden Has A Huge Netanyahu Problem
Background:
I have worked with people who hated each other but I had to find a way for them to come together to get necessary things done.
That coming together most often happens when you can align the goals so that they will move in the same direction because goals are the same. Even if people are not, can not, or will not work together.
An example of this was Putin and Trump. When people claimed that there was collusion, I did not know if there was, but I did recognize that they both had aligned goals — to see Trump win.
Trump wanted to win because, well, power to Trump is like a drug and he needs it as much as he needs oxygen.
Putin wanted Trump to win because Putin wants to weaken the US globally and Trump would do just that. Trump’s comments about NATO were very much aligned with Putin's desire to see a weaker NATO also. (I am going to look at this at a very high level. There may be other connections but this is unarguable at a high level.)
So basically, with the alignment of goals, there did not need to be collusion or close coordination — they could both work to try to influence the election in Trump’s favor separately.
I had a similar situation at work. I was the supervisor of a high-profile department. If things ran well, no one would notice us but if anything went sideways for any reason, everyone knew we existed and not in a good way. I had a boss who targeted me and another person because she thought we were threats. While her other target was treated horribly and, frankly abused, she had to hold back on me because, as much as she wanted to get to me, she and I shared the same goals of making sure that the department ran smoothly and I had demonstrated that I could make sure that it did. Not only did we avoid shortages but we also did not have a major multimillion-dollar mistake after a major product change which had been a common occurrence before I took over. So there were two different outcomes. The other person left the company and sued. I stayed, was weakened in the eyes of some people but not the people who mattered (the customers), and left the company on good terms — working for one of my customers. Sure she got rid of me but I ended up with a very good opportunity to move on — in that way, it was a win-win.
If you are ever in this situation, you need to understand what the goals are for the people involved and, as much as possible, try to get the parties involved to understand that, at some level, they desire the same outcome. You need to find that level and make sure they understand it. If the goals can not be aligned, then the parties will not be able to work together constructively.
This brings me to Netanyahu and Biden:
Netanyahu is facing an investigation and he is looking to stay in office for as long as possible — saying that he will leave after the situation in Gaza is resolved. The problem is that this creates a perverse incentive because peace for him leaves him without power and may make him more vulnerable to prosecution. So peace is not a goal — in fact — he wants to make this as bloody and bad as possible so that it may provoke others to act and attack. As the world is stunned at what he has done to the civilians in Gaza, he also launched an attack in Syria which provoked Iran. Iran has retaliated and while Netanyahu’s next step is not known, unless he faces internal pressure, he may escalate this more — because, to him, worse is better.
And there is another advantage to him to escalate:
Additionally in the US, people are blaming Biden for what Netanyahu is doing and Biden is losing support in key areas of the country. This is another perverse incentive because Netanyahu is friends with Kushner’s family and they go far back. Having Trump return to power would be a huge plus for him, making conflict as big, bloody, and bad as he can would weaken Biden and help Trump. Double bonus.
And, if he gets Iran to retaliate in a way that drives up gas prices, it could nearly guarantee Trump a victory in November.
A new form of election interference — via Netanyahu.
As I am writing this Iran has retaliated for the coming of the consulate in Syria which killed some of their military leaders. Although the consulate is in Syria, it is not considered Syrian — it is considered a strike to Iran. Experts have speculated that is why Iran responded directly to Israel instead of using other groups — this also gave Iran an ability to show that “they would not take it” but it also gave Israel and others a chance to make sure that there was not a lot of damage. They could intercept the drones and missiles. It was a “show” of force. Since Iran retaliated after Trump took out some of their commanders, Netanyahu had to expect some use of force as a result of the strike.
We are unfortunately waiting for Israel's response. The US has indicated that we will not help Israel with any offensive use of force but now we wait.
Remember the incentive structure for Netanyahu is heavily in favor of escalating this and making this as bad as possible. It will help not only himself but Trump (and Kushner) so unless there is a lot of backdoor stuff going on, we may be able to expect a very reckless response.
Biden on the other hand is in a bind, he wants peace and wants to avoid an escalation of regional violence. This puts his goal and Netanyahu’s goals in direct conflict. But he still has some options:
- If he breaks contact with Israel as a result of Netanyahu, this may cause others to want to take advantage of this perceived weakness and attack — thereby helping Netanyahu expand and increase the regional violence. This works directly against Biden's goal to avoid an increase in regional hostility. Others may take this as a momentary opportunity to strike Israel hard while they can.
- Provide unconditional support for Netanyahu which means that he will likely continue to kill with abandon which will also increase tensions throughout the area and will likely cause an escalation of violence as a result.
In the end, Biden is trying to walk a fine line, an invisible line, where he puts pressure on Netanyahu to do the right thing and to create a level of incentives to get Netanyahu to act more humanly and not overreact to Iran— but ultimately it won’t work because Netanyahu singularly needs escalation to stay in power.
Biden has attempted to try to walk this line to buy time but Netanyahu is working on an expedited schedule as Israeli people are less and less satisfied with him — they may be looking for a way to remove him. Time is on Biden’s side — but not Netanyahu’s and now he is at a point where he may work hard to escalate things with Iran and others.
There is little possibility that Biden and Netanyahu will be able to work together. Ironically, Biden may be able to work better with leaders of other countries (even Iran) knowing what Bibi is up to — because Iran and others may also have a vested interest in not allowing this to escalate.
In this case, NOT escalating would be two goals that Biden and Iran may share which may help them come up with solutions to deal with Netanyahu.
All that said, the Israeli people need to get rid of Bibi fast. The people in the US will not tolerate and support the government with the atrocities that are being committed in Gaza and elsewhere. Humanity needs to rise to the occasion.
Tik Tok.
NOTE: I understand that this situation is more complicated historically. I am boiling this down to the motivations of leaders because, through history, we have seen where leaders' motivations change and affect history. They may use history to get people on their side or manipulate people but, ultimately, their personal motivation means more than anything else.
UPDATE: June 24, 2024: Netanyahu expanding or shifting the battlefield. Ending this is not the goal.
